The November 2018 election in Oregon has an interesting twist — 16 State Legislature seats have incumbents with the Democratic, Independent, and Republican nominations. Most of them are Democrats, but some are Republican. Out of these 16 seats, there are six House seats, and one Senate seat, with Libertarian candidates. Assuming the Green Party doesn’t have candidates in most of these districts, these Libertarians will get a taste of what the two-party system is like.
After seeing video after video and several headlines about Larry Sharpe, the Libertarian Gubernatorial candidate in New York, I decided to reach out to him and ask if he had some details from his campaign or a little message he’d like to include in this article. He graciously offered to do a phone interview. I was excited to take him up on his offer.
Recently, we’ve heard people call for the abolishment of the electoral college. Mostly, it’s coming from people who don’t like Donald Trump and feel that the popular vote should be the determining factor in who wins the White House. There have been theories such as Hillary not being a decent candidate to Russia being involved (of course, right?). While one of these theories may have some validity, this isn’t the real reason why Hillary lost the electoral vote. She won the popular vote, but many people can’t figure out how she lost in the long run. That’s why I decided to sit down and try to explain it to everyone.
Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has received plenty of endorsements by prominent leaders and other elected officials in America. A few states that I believe would be very helpful to Trump would be in battleground states and likely blue states where he has received endorsements from governors. This includes Maine (4 electoral votes), New Jersey (14 electoral votes), and Florida (29 electoral votes). Does Trump need to put a lot of effort in these states to win? Maybe, but it may not be as necessarily as one might think.
With Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee, it’s time for him to make some decisions about where to start campaigning a little harder. 270ToWin is a great resource for everyone to simulate presidential elections. This year, there’s a setting that allows you to see which states are considered (at least according to this site) battleground states. From there, you can test out your strategy and see if winning certain states will help your candidate. I decided to have a little fun and do this myself. I’ve also done an analysis of what would be beneficial to Trump.
Like it or not, Donald Trump is most likely going to win the Republican Party’s nomination before there is a chance for a contested or brokered convention. April has 309 delegates to allocate, mostly winner-take-all or winner-take-most. How are things going to look? Here are my predictions for each state in April.
I will update with new predictions before each primary is held and publish them sometime before each primary.
As everybody knows, election day was this month. This day was a chance for Oregon to move forward in the right direction. Below is a picture of how the gubernatorial election went in Oregon. Even though the majority of the state, in terms of counties, voted for Dennis Richardson, John Kitzhaber won the higher populated areas of Portland and Eugene. In the form of an economic analysis, complete with what we can expect, here’s why Oregon chose poorly.
Oregon is always called a blue state, but county results usually say otherwise. (Click to Enlarge)
What Oregon Had at Stake
Oregon had a lot riding on this election. More jobs, better education, and less waste of money. These were desperately wanted in Oregon. Now that John Kitzhaber is serving a fourth term, the issues Oregonians really care about will most likely not be addressed. At least, not for the next four years. It was very clear: Under Kitzhaber, we had higher unemployment than the national average and our high school graduation rates were pretty low compared to the rest of America. Under Richardson, we would have someone doing their best to see that all of these things were improved. In order to economically survive as a state, the state needs to ensure that jobs are available to those seeking employment, education is nothing less than top quality, and that state money is carefully monitored.